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World Bank cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, lowest since the pandemic

Thursday, 11 June 2026· 5 min read·Source: World Bank

The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% in its Global Economic Prospects report released on June 11, 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025 and the lowest rate since the pandemic year of 2020. The downgrade was attributed mainly to the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East. The Bank warned growth could slow to as little as 1.3% if energy-supply disruptions worsen and trigger financial-market stress, and projected global growth recovering to 2.8% in 2027. Forecasts for two-thirds of economies were lowered, and global inflation was seen rising to about 4% in 2026.

Key Facts & Details

8 points

1
World Bank cut 2026 global growth to 2.5%, the lowest since 2020.
2
The downgrade is mainly due to the Middle East conflict.
3
Growth could fall to 1.3% in a severe energy-disruption scenario.
4
Forecasts for two-thirds of economies were downgraded; 2027 growth seen at 2.8%.
5
The projection is in the Global Economic Prospects report.

Deep Dive

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Global inflation was projected to rise to about 4% in 2026, up from 3.3% in 2025.
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Growth for developing and emerging-market economies was cut to a post-pandemic low.
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The Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption was flagged as a key risk to oil flows.

Exam Focus

What 2026 global growth rate did the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects project, and why was it cut?

Exam Relevance & Angle

World Bank growth projections are high-frequency report-based GA, testing the exact figure, the publishing institution and the report's name, all of which feed economy and current-affairs questions.

Target Exams

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Background & Context

The World Bank, headquartered in Washington, D.C., is a multilateral lender established in 1944 (along with the IMF) at the Bretton Woods Conference. Its Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report, published twice a year (usually January and June), analyses global and regional growth trends and risks. The World Bank Group's main arms include the IBRD and IDA. Growth forecasts from the World Bank, IMF and OECD are closely compared, and downgrades by all three signal a synchronised global slowdown. The current president of the World Bank is Ajay Banga.